R14 Preview: New Zealand Breakers vs Brisbane Bullets

When: 7.30pm (AEST), Friday 16 April
Where: Silverdome, Launceston
Broadcast: ESPN; Sky Sports NZ; SBS On Demand; Twitch

The last time
New Zealand 81 (T Webster 27, Delany 17, Bach 16) d Brisbane 76 (Drmic 25, Sobey 23, Krebs 10) OT, Round 11, Nissan Arena, Brisbane

After nine lead changes in the opening 23 minutes, it appeared New Zealand had control of this Round 11 game in the second half, but eight late points in 90 seconds from Nathan Sobey forced the game into an extra period, where a clutch Finn Delany trey sealed a memorable and much-needed victory for the Kiwis. The key to their win was possession-game scoring, winning points from turnovers and second chance points by a combined 31-15.

The now
That was NZ’s only triumph in their past eight games, indeed they’ve claimed just four of their past 16, but the good news is two of those Ws were over Brisbane. The Breakers christened their temporary Launceston home on Tuesday by finding yet another way to lose a close contest, William McDowell-White making a late free throw he was trying to canon off the backboard, opening the door for Bryce Cotton’s heroics. Dan Shamir’s men can now probably afford only three more defeats from 17 games if they are to be playoff-bound.

After falling to Melbourne on Monday, the Bullets have now lost four of their past five outings to fall one game behind the fourth-placed Hawks. The pleasing sign from the past two games – a win over Illawarra and that fightback loss to United – was their offence got back on track, averaging 88.5ppg after managing just 73ppg in their previous three matches following the loss of Vic Law. Getting 16 points and 6 assists from Lamar Patterson in 36 minutes across those two contests is another promising sign for the hectic run home.

The stats

 - Dan Shamir’s Breakers are 5-2 against Brisbane over the past two seasons, compared to 15-25 against the rest of the NBL

 - Andrej Lemanis has the best record (7-5) of any Boomers coach against European teams at World Cups and Olympics

 - New Zealand’s five Ws over the Bullets in that span have been by an average of 5.6 points, with only one margin greater than five points, while their losses have been by an average of 15.5 points

 - Over their past five games, Brisbane have coughed up 13.8 turnovers per game and been outscored on points from turnovers 45-84

The key men

Corey Webster – In Round 8, C-Web as he poured in 21 points at 64 per cent and picked up a game-high +17 in the five-point win. He scored 14 of those points from straight-on as Brisbane struggled to deal with him off the Breakers’ clever on-ball action. Tai Webster’s shot chart has looked similar against the Bullets, where he’s averaged 21.7ppg and 6.3apg. However, in Round 11 he went 2-of-9 from above the foul line – and 10-of-29 overall – as NZ scored just 69 in regulation, so expect Brisbane to make Corey also finish at the cup.

Nathan Sobey – In two losses to the Breakers, the usually red-hot Sobey has shot just 33 per cent from the field and dished 6 assists to 5 turnovers. In Brisbane wins this season, Sobey-Wan-Kenobe has connected at 54 per cent from the floor and dished 4.9 dimes to just 1.9 miscues. In the Round 11 loss to NZ where he struggled mightily, shooting 8-of-25 and registering just 1 assist, there was no Vic Law and no Matt Hodgson, so if Patterson and the supporting crew can stand tall this time around, it will be much harder to target Sobey.